With the 2020 NFL regular season firmly in the past, it’s time for the first Super Wild Card Weekend. Adding a seventh seed to the Playoffs has increased the number of games to three on both Saturday and Sunday (opposed to just two each day). There’s plenty of action between the six teams that are participating in Super Wild Card Weekend.
There’s plenty of storylines ahead– from JuJu Smith Schuster calling the Browns “[a bunch of] greyed out faces” to Chase Young demanding Tom Brady. It’s one of the biggest weekends in both the Browns’ and Bills’ franchises and unfamiliar territory for the Buccaneers. With so much to prove on the table, let’s take a look at the best player prop bets for the inaugural Super Wild Card Weekend.
Player Prop Picks
Tom Brady: UNDER 297.5 passing yards vs Washington (-110)
In the Playoffs, there’s almost nothing that can slow down Tom Brady, as demonstrated by his six Super Bowl rings. However, teams have demonstrated a surefire method to disrupting Brady and even bouncing him from the Playoffs. Of his five most recent playoff exits, every team had an elite pass rush (2019-20 Titans, 2015-16 Broncos, 2013-14 Broncos, 2012-13 Ravens, 2011-12 Giants). Historically, even in the regular season, Brady struggled when facing pressure.
Enter the 2020-21 Washington Football Team, who fields one of the most elite pass rushes in the NFL. Washington is sixth in sacks and pressure rate, and second in PFF’s pass defense grades. Though headlines are dominated by Chase Young’s comments following their victory over the Eagles (“I want Brady”) and how Brady is fueled by such comments, the pass rush is coming.
We’re not calling for an outright Washington win, Brady won’t be lighting up the scoreboard in this one.
Lamar Jackson: OVER 68.5 rushing yards vs Titans (-148)
Greg Roman and the Ravens’ offense has figured it out and become a complete nightmare for opposing defenses. Thanks to complex masking of simple run schemes, Baltimore is averaging 270 rushing yards per game over their last three games. The Titans have been susceptible to mostly every offense this season, sitting 18th in rush EPA defense and 15th in run success rate allowed.
During the Ravens’ five game win streak, Jackson is averaging 86 rushing yards per game (11.2 attempts) and 7.7 yards per attempt. In case there was any lack of motivation for Jackson and the Ravens, last year’s Divisional game against the Titans should kick the Ravens into high gear. This could end up being one of Jackson’s finest games and the stars are aligning as such.
Russell Wilson: UNDER 254.5 passing yards vs Rams (-135)
Sean McVay has had the Seahawks’ number since taking over as Rams head coach in 2017. In his tenure, the Rams are 5-3 against the Seahawks with a +47 cumulative point margin. The Rams also already field the number-one pass defense in the NFL, sitting first in total EPA, first in dropback EPA allowed, and first in PFF’s pass defense grade.
Russell Wilson has usurped 254.5 passing yards just once since Week 10 (Week 12 loss vs Giants). His defense– after starting historically badly– has turned into one of the more formidable units in the NFL. Before Week 10, the Seahawks and their opponents were combining for nearly 61 points per game; after, just 40.4 points per game. It’s a remarkable turnaround that’s in response to a slowed Seahawks’ offensive scheme. Two meticulous offenses going up against sturdy defenses doesn’t bode well for overs in this one.