UFC Vegas 18 Betting Prediction: Clay Guida vs. Michael Johnson

Ending the prelims on a high note is a lightweight showdown in the next UFC event. Looking at this betting opportunity, you will get to see a bout between Michael Johnson and Clay Guida.

Date: Sun, Feb 7, 4:00 PM

Venue: UFC Apex

Watch on: ESPN+

Michael Johnson (19-16-0)

Johnson is currently on a three fight losing streak as he prepares for this matchup. His last battle was a submission loss against Thiago Moises back in May of 2020.

His fighting resume shows that he has eight wins by knockout, two by submission, and nine by decision. All eight of his knockouts have resulted in first round finishes.

“The Menace” had a striking accuracy at 38 percent and a grappling accuracy at 45 percent. He lands 4.23 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.85. This is a solid ratio that he has put together most of his career.

Johnson has a takedown defense at 79 percent and a significant strike defense at 58 percent. He also averages 0.51 takedowns and 0.10 submissions every 15 minutes.

Clay Guida (35-17-0)

Guida enters this fight with a two bout skid. His last showing was a unanimous decision loss to Bobby Green back in June of 2020.

His fighting resume shows that he has a long storied career of seven wins by knockout, 13 by submission, 14 by decision, and one by other. He also has 13 first round finishes with a combined effort of knockouts and submissions.

“The Carpenter” has a striking accuracy at 33 percent and a grappling accuracy at 38 percent. He lands 2.41 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.52. This ratio is slightly on the negative side, but the volume is not much to be concerned with.

Guida has a takedown defense at 68 percent and a significant strike defense at 64 percent. He also lands 3.37 takedowns and 0.70 submissions every 15 minutes.

Odds For This Event

The market has moved toward favoring Johnson here. For the moneyline, BookMaker has the odds currently set at:

Johnson: -220

Guida: +172

*odds are subject to changes

Free Betting Pick

Both of these fighters are looking to get back on a winning track. Johnson arguably needs a win more, but Guida is just as deserving.

This bout has a very good chance of going the distance. Both fighters combined have 22 victories in just decisions alone. This should set up a great fight for fans to watch.

On paper, Johnson has a better offensive performance at hand especially with significant strikes. This could be the difference maker here if he can defend well against takedowns from Guida.

Overall, Johnson has all the tools available to snap this losing streak. If this fight does not make it to a decision, look for Johnson to land a barrage of strikes that lead to a solid TKO victory.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Johnson wins via decision, at -220

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