Super Bowl 55: Chiefs remain 3-point “road” favorites over Bucs

Featured in this article:

  • The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS during their active seven-game win streak.
  • Tom Brady has won 6 of 9 trips to the Super Bowl.

The reigning Super Bowl champions, Kansas City Chiefs, head into Super Bowl XLV 16-2 straight up, but just 7-10-1 against the spread and a paltry 1-8-1 against the spread over their past 10 games, the one coming against the Bills in the AFC Championship.

The Buccaneers have won seven straight, including three road playoff games, and are 5-2 against the spread during that stretch.

Tampa Bay is 5-3 straight up at home, while the Chiefs finished the regular season 8-0 on the road.

Super Bowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Info
Date: February 7, 2020, 6:30 p.m. ET
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
TV Coverage: CBS
Opening Odds: Chiefs -3 | O/U 56.5
How to Bet: Best Online Sportsbook Reviews

Line Movement

Kansas City opened and remain 3-point favorites seven days shy of Super Bowl 55. The Buccaneers moneyline continues to hover around +150, while the point total opened at 56.5, but can be found as low as 56 at some of the online sportsbooks we track. The Chiefs are a coin flip, 9-9, to hit the OVER/UNDER with four overs and four unders on the road, while the Buccaneers have also hit four overs and four unders at home. Fade the point total is recommended.

Kansas City won the regular season meeting between the two teams, 27-24. However, the Buccaneers did manage to eek out an against the spread home win +3.5. The Chiefs jumped out to a 17-0 first quarter lead and dominated time of possession, 37-23, thanks, in part, to two Brady interceptions. Tyreek Hill erupted for 269 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 13 catches.

It was the Chiefs first win over the Buccaneers since 1993 when Joe Montana beat Tampa, 27-3.

Chiefs News and Notes

Five things to know:

  • Following a divisional round win over the Cleveland Browns, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s record improved to 25-5 after a regular or postseason BYE week.
  • The Chiefs rank dead last in red zone scoring defense as they’ve allowed a touchdown more than 74% of the time. Tampa Bay converts nearly 65% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, but that rate has dipped to 46.1% during the playoffs. Settling for field goals is out of the question if the Buccaneers expect to win.
  • Any one of Brady’s targets can score a touchdown at any given time. Kansas City’s pass defense finished the regular season ranked 13th and they’ve allowed just 3 more pass yards per game over their past three.
  • The 49ers defense held the Chiefs offense to 5.3 yards per play in Super Bowl 54, or nearly one fewer yard per play. San Francisco’s defense was a top-two unit that held Kansas City in check until Mahomes and company’s 21-point fourth quarter. On the contrary, Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranks outside the top 20 and the team’s two starting safeties are trying to work their way back from injury and are NOT a guarantee to play.
  • Injury report: starting left tackle Eric Fisher is OUT with a torn Achilles, while linebacker Willie Gay is also OUT with a torn meniscus. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins and cornerback L’Jarius Snead are both questionable. Running back Le’Veon Bell is doubtful with a knee injury.

Buccaneers News and Notes

Five things to know:

  • Tom Brady is 6-3 in Super Bowl games straight up, but 4-5 against the spread. He did cover the -2.5 in the Patriots last Super Bowl win over the Rams.
  • Tampa Bay allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends (REC + YDS + TDs) per game. Travis Kelce caught 13 passes on 15 targets for 118 yards with two touchdowns against the Bills. Buffalo allowed the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends.
  • Rob Gronkowski’s best game of the 2020 season came against the Chiefs when he caught six of seven passes for 106 yards. Don’t be surprised if Brady leans on the veteran tight end once again in the big game.
  • The Buccaneers defense has struggled to get off the field during these plays. Tampa Bay allowed the Redskins, Saints and Packers to convert 53.85% of their third downs to extend drives. That’s the fourth-highest conversion rate allowed over any teams past three games.
  • Injury report: Antonio Browns (knee) is getting close to returning, but remains questionable. Odds are he plays. Two starting safeties, Antoine Winfield (ankle) and Jordan Whitehead (shoulder) remain questionable for Super Bowl 55, too. Winfield missed the NFC title game and is closer to returning, while Whitehead’s shoulder remains a work in progress. They’ll be needed if the Buccaneers expect to contain Tyreek Hill.

Game Pick: Chiefs -3, lean OVER

It’s extremely difficult to bet against Tom Brady in the Super Bowl on his new-found home turf, but when you give Andy Reid an extra week to prepare, any edge Kansas City enjoyed in this head-to-head matchup – gets multiplied. You can’t account for Hill, Kelce and Mahomes’ mobility on every single play and any offensive track meet advantage favors the “road” team. The Buccaneers exhausted a lot of energy, needing three road wins to get here, and I just feel like Reid + Bieniemy + Mahomes is a wiser Super Bowl trio than Arians + Brady and his bevvy of offensive weapons.

For everything else Chiefs-Buccaneers, be sure to check out our Super Bowl 55 Super Page where you’ll find the latest up-to-the-minute odds, stats, betting trends and information you need to be prepared for super Sunday on February 7th.

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