Should He Fold Trips vs An Aggressive Pro? ($25K High Roller review)

I’ve got an hand that is interesting you today, folks.

Three huge factors were at play in this one:

  • A $25,000 online that is buy-in is about since tough a game title by which you could see your self.
  • Steve O’Dwyer is about since tough an opponent with who you can battle.
  • Defending Your blind that is big with hand at the bottom of your continue range is just about as tough a situation as it gets in No Limit Hold’em.

Put those three things together, and you have a recipe for an spot that is incredibly tough

Irish poker symbol Dara O’Kearney encountered off against high-stakes tournament pro Steve O’Dwyer into the Partypoker POWERFEST tall Roller and had been place in an excruciating spot by the river.

He broke down that turn in a method movie on ‘The Chip Race’ podcast. Take a good look at the movie below, also featuring guest that is strategy Byrne, or read on for a written version.

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Editor’s Note: This article is by Irish tournament pro and Unibet Poker ambassador David Lappin who is a follow that is great Twitter. Alongside poker that is irish Dara O’Kearney, David produces and hosts the GPI global poker award winning podcast ‘The Chip Race” sponsored by Unibet Poker. All episodes are available on Apple Music, SoundCloud and Stitcher.

Background

Game: $25,000 Partypoker.com POWERFEST Highroller
Format: 9-handed
Blinds: 1500/3000
Ante: 3000 BB Ante
Stage: Just before the end of late registration

Relevant Stacks:
Steve O’Dwyer – 100bb
Dara O’Kearney – 32bb

Preflop

Steve O’Dwyer opens the Lojack to 2.2bb. Dara defends his big blind with 8♣ 4♣.

Preflop Analysis

Dara’s defend in the blind that is big standard, even facing a 2.2x open. He acknowledges, however, that had he understood the opponent had been Steve O’Dwyer, he’d have just called with 85 matched or better. The reason being he prefers to shave down their worst defends versus such a strong and player that is accomplished

Note: Want to know how to play every hand in every preflop situation that is common? Get instant access to substantial preflop charts and classes (for money games, heads-up and tournaments) whenever you join the Upswing Lab program. Lock your chair now!

The Advanced Solver Ranges for money games — one of five sets of preflop maps into the Upswing Lab.

Flop

The Pot: 5.9bb
The Flop: A♠ T♣ 8
The Action: Dara checks. Steve wagers 2.7bb. Dara phone calls.

Flop Analysis

On a flop such as this, life just isn’t effortless. Dara will probably need to phone one bet (presuming the bet size is not really big) and fold on a complete lot of turns.

Our opponent has a range advantage, but we have far from whiffed. Dara highlights the importance of the flush that is backdoor, which adds lots of possible playability down the roads.

In short, check-calling this road versus a little bet is merely mandatory, then when Steve fires out 2.7bb, Dara has an call that is easy. (he frequently be mucking the winner, he’d also be folding way too often versus Steve’s c-bet.

TurnThe*)If he folded this hand, not only would Pot
: 11.2bbThe Turn: (A♠ T♣ 8
) 8♠The Action

: Dara checks. Steve checks behind.

Turn Analysis

This is a brilliant interesting turn.Dara has more 8x fingers in their big blind defending range than Steve has in their lojack range that is open.

That said, Steve has more hands that are nuttish-typeA PioSolver analysis reveals a preference for a mixture of actions from Dara.

  • Whenever provided the choice between leading for 65% of cooking pot, leading for 35% of cooking pot, and checking, the solver wants to:
  • Bet 65% of cooking pot at a 25% regularity

Check at a 75% frequencyIf Dara chose to have a turn range that is leading his hand is a decent candidate.

That said, trips with a stronger kicker are usually preferred by the solver. Checking 100% is also a strategy that is fine if you like to help keep things easy.

  • When Steve checks right back, their range is likely comprised of:
  • Some give-ups
  • Some marginal value-hands (weaker Ax, 10x and pocket pairs)

AA and A8 combinations which have a lock that is virtual the hand and block many of the hands with which Dara would continue.

A Hypothetical range that is betting include value fingers that take advantage of some security (AK/AQ/98/78) mixed in with strong fingers that don’t block the ace (TT/T8) and some semi-bluffs.Editor’s Note from Mike Brady: win more Hands
.RiverThe if you want to learn all about the strategy of leading into the aggressor on turns and rivers, read my article This Poker “Cheat Code” Will Help you Pot: 11.2bb
The River: (A♠ T♣ 8
8♠) 7

Stack-to-Pot Ratio:

2.5:1The Action:

Dara bets 6.7bb (~60%). Steve shoves for 27.1bb effective. Dara tank-folds.River Analysis

The river completes J9, one of the straight that is open-ended through the flop. Particularly, Dara is more prone to have J9 himself to extract value from Ax.(* since he would have defended preflop with J9s and J9o, whereas Steve would only have raised preflop from his position with the suited variety.

Figuring that Steve has a lot of value-hands that check back, Dara decides to bet) He chooses a 60% sizing, which Pio determines to be a error that is minor. It prefers to test 75% with this specific tactile hand and, interestingly, it likes to overbet 1.2x pot 25% of the time.The logic of checking is that we need to have a balanced and checking that is protected, the one that contains sufficient fingers that may phone a river bet.

Therefore, weaker 8x get into this checking range at a frequency that is high

We also need a range that is balanced we overbet.

The product range should include value that is enough to go with the bluffs, and those bluffs need to bet big to make enough of Steve’s range indifferent. Hence, the 84 is sprinkled in as an overbet to beef the value range up.

When Steve shoves, he lays Dara a price that is great his trips.

But in truth the relative value of trips with a kicker that is bad a shove is hugely diminished. Dara replays the hand, determining Steve’s value range as AA, J9s and 77. He struggles to think about normal bluffs.

just what about abnormal bluffs? Each at a small percentage in these spots, in the pursuit of equilibrium, PioSolver finds bluffs by mixing in a wide variety of hands, favoring small pairs and some Ax. Due to its complexity, this is probably the aspect of poker where solvers and humans diverge, and therefore the most area that is bountiful of, also against at the very top player.

For that explanation, despite the fact that Pio would find a call with Dara’s hand, i favor their fold.

Results

Dara Folded his trips and Steve won the pot, later revealing to a Dara that a8.

Wrapping Up( was had by him*)Preflop is standard, even if the call is at the bottom of Dara’s range. The flop is a must call. There is scope for different options on the turn and while Dara’s river sizing is not deemed optimal, the EV loss of a 60% bet is negligible at equilibrium. This hand is really all about playing versus the river raise.

It’s impossible for a player that is human determine the perfect line regarding the river however the proven fact that PIO splits between mostly checks plus some overbets reveals a great deal about that form of spot.By checking, we simplify things I would advocate for that if the recommended overbet frequency was sub-10% (it’s good to have simplified implementable strategies) as we have a nice check-call candidate and. However, the frequency that is recommended 25% so we ought to oftimes be randomizing.

As played, dealing with the shove, Dara should just phone if he believes that Steve is switching some 22-66 combinations plus some Ax fingers into bluffs. Then Dara needs to make the counter-exploitative fold.Most if Steve is not doing that players are not capable of finding bluffs here and against them I think Dara has a much easier fold. Versus Steve O’Dwyer, it’s not that easy.What do you think of Dara’s play? You find enough bluffs on the river?

Let us know in the comments.(*)If if you were Steve, could you want more hand analysis from high stakes tournaments, read (*)Top Pro has Pocket Queens Passively with $2.7 Million in the Line.(*)Thanks for reading!(*)Note:(*) prepared to join 6,000+ players presently updating their No Limit Hold’em abilities? (*)Crush the expert strategies to your competition(*) you will see within the Upswing Lab program. (*)Learn more now!(*)

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