Packers heavy home favorites following OT loss to Colts

Featured in this article:

  • The Packers are just 2-4 against the spread over their last six games.
  • The Bears are 5-14 against the spread in their last 19 games against the Packers.
  • Green Bay is 9-1 straight up in their last 10 home games.

As of writing this, Chicago has not announced if Nick Foles has earned another start or if Mitchell Trubisky is healthy enough to return. After starting the season 5-1, the Bears have lost four straight and are 5-5 against the spread this season.

The Packers scored 28 points in the first half, but only three in the second and the lack of balance cost them in a 34-31 overtime loss to the Colts. Green Bay’s struggles against elite NFL teams continues as they fell to 7-3 straight up and 6-4 against the spread.

Week 12: Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Game Info
Date: November 29, 2020, 8:20 p.m. ET
Stadium: Lambeau Field
TV Coverage: NBC
Opening Odds: Green Bay -7.5 | O/U 45.5
How to Bet: Best Online Sportsbook Reviews

Line Movement

The Packers opened and remain 7.5-point home favorites. The Bears moneyline opened at +246 pending a starting quarterback announcement. The point total opened at 45.5, but ticked down to 45 at some outlets. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Packers left 12 games.

Chicago is just 2-10 in their last 12 games at Green Bay.

Bears News and Notes

Before getting hurt/benched, Mitch Trubisky completed less than 60 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and three interceptions. While he’s not the franchise quarterback Chicago had hoped for when they drafted him, Trubisky does possess a mobility that Nick Foles does not. That lack of athleticism is partly to blame for the 14 times Foles has been sacked over his past FOUR games.

For the sake of argument, let’s lean on Trubisky earning the nod this Sunday. He was 0-2 against the Packers last season, completed less than 58 percent of his passes in both games and the Bears scored a whopping 16 points combined.

For Chicago to hang in this game, the Bears defense is going to need to harass Aaron Rodgers in the backfield and force some turnovers to hand their anemic offense a short field.

Packers News and Notes

After losing just their third game of the season, I thought it would be interesting to review what went wrong in each of the Packers losses this season to see if a trend emerges.

At Buccaneers, 38-10

Green Bay actually came out and punched Tampa Bay in the mouth as they scored a field goal and touchdown on their first two offensive drives. However, the Buccaneers’ counter-punch knocked Green Bay out. Back-to-back interceptions led to back-to-back touchdowns as Tom Brady helped lead his offense to a 28-point second quarter. However, it was running back Ronald Jones that deserves most of the credit. He averaged nearly 5.0 yards per carry for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns.

Meanwhile the defense ended up holding the Packers to just 3.3 yards per play or nearly 3.0 yards per play below their season-to-date average.

Vs Vikings, 28-22

Dalvin Cook and the Vikings coaches watched the tape of Ronald Jones and found a weakness in the Packers defense. Minnesota’s franchise running back carried the ball 30 times for 163 yards or 5.4 yards per pop with three touchdowns. Green Bay’s rush defense ranks 13th through 10 games and yet, in all three of their games, they’ve struggled to stop / contain the lead running back on the opposing team. Their offense also struggled to score point in the second half, as was the case in the loss to the Colts.

At Colts, 34-31 (OT)

Green Bay’s first three offensive drives of the second half:

  • 3-and-out
  • 3-and-out
  • Fumble, lost

They then engineered a nine-play, 6-minute drive that ended with a turnover on downs. The Colts defense is second only to the Steelers this season, which isn’t the case with the Bears. Chicago’s may be a top 10 defensive squad, but have allowed 23.25 points per game during their four-game losing streak.

Chicago is also without a lead running back like Jones, Cook or the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor who racked up 90 yards on 22 carries.

Betting Pick: Packers -7.5

If Trubisky starts, the half-point hook makes me nervous. However, I’m game for that inherit risk. Green Bay may struggle with playoff caliber teams, but the Bears offense is one of the most anemic in the league. Rodgers isn’t going to let his MVP season go to waste by playing down to the Bears level on his home turf. Green Bay wins by 10.

Check out our expert NFL betting guide if you want to learn more about How to Bet on Week 12 of the NFL or head right to our favorite online sportsbook review page and find the right site for you!

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