The most important plays in any football game are the ones that result in a touchdown. For a player, finding the end zone can be the difference between winning and losing in the NFL and this type of betting prop is the latest craze for sports bettors trying to find an edge in NFL betting.
If you’ve followed me on Twitter, you know I’ve been sharing my weekly NFL touchdown scorer picks for a few seasons. Now, I’ve decided I want to post them on Odds Shark so the average bettor can see why I’ve made a particular pick, what the thought process is and why NFL TD scorer odds are what they are.
See Odds Shark’s Best NFL Picks Sites
NFL Touchdown Scorer Picks: Wild Card Weekend
Each week from now until Super Bowl 55, I’ll be giving out my top NFL touchdown scorer pick for each playoff game of the postseason. This is my best bet for each game but my full slate of picks for each contest can still be found on my Twitter page. If you prefer to simply bet on sides and totals for NFL games, I also have my six favorite picks in my weekly NFL best bets, The Pick Six.
All NFL touchdown scorer odds below are courtesy of the latest betting lines as of this writing:
Colts-Bills: TY Hilton +200
After a career renaissance for the longtime Colt, this may be the swan song for banking on TY Hilton as a regular TD scorer but at +200, this had to be locked in. Hilton finally looks healthy after seemingly battling injuries for the last three seasons and over the second half of the season he’s been performing like a Pro Bowler.
Since Week 11, Hilton has been racking up the stats and, most importantly, targets. In those six games, he has 31 receptions on 43 targets to go with five touchdowns. No other Colt receiver has more than 21 targets (Michael Pittman Jr.) in that span.
Rams-Seahawks: Tyler Lockett +120
I generally don’t like taking players with such low odds but Tyler Lockett of the Seahawks is a bit underrated in this spot. In two games vs the Rams this season, he’s averaging 13.6 yards per catch with 15 targets. While he didn’t score in those games, the WR still leads the team this season in red-zone targets (18) and red-zone touchdowns (8). I think we see a heavy dose of Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey on DK Metcalf, which will give Lockett more opportunity to score.
Buccaneers-Washington: Terry McLaurin +210
Choosing between Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas was a bit of a toss-up as both players are getting the wealth of targets in the red zone for Washington. Thomas may have the edge on McLaurin for red-zone touchdowns but I’m iffy on whether QB Alex Smith can move this offense deep enough into Buccaneers territory given how stifling that defense is against the run. Enter McLaurin.
The second-year wideout is emerging as a bona fide No.1 WR and was 11th in the NFL in overall targets. Take a look at the top players ahead of him in that category such as Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. Not saying McLaurin is on their level for talent but they are all routinely -180 or lower to score a TD.
This is an odds play while also a defensive matchup play because the weakness of the Bucs defense is in the secondary. The Bucs allowed 29 passing touchdowns this season and 20 of those were to wide receivers, which is why I sided with McLaurin at +210 over Logan Thomas. If you prefer Thomas over McLaurin, that’s OK too.
Ravens-Titans: Jonnu Smith +185
Arguably the most underrated tight end in the NFL, Jonnu Smith has been a bit of a touchdown darling for me as he always seems to come through when I bet on him. I’ve wagered on his anytime touchdown prop five times this season and hit four of them, each time with odds of +150 or greater.
Smith has a history of being able to sneak into the end zone vs the Ravens. In his last two games vs Baltimore, Jonnu has six catches for only 32 yards but scored a touchdown in each contest. In 2020, Smith led the Titans in red-zone targets, red-zone catches and red-zone touchdowns, which is the holy trinity for a touchdown scorer. If the Ravens stifle the Tennessee rushing attack in the red zone, it’s almost automatic that Ryan Tannehill looks for Jonnu instead.
Bears-Saints: Jimmy Graham +300
A bit of a revenge spot and I’m taking a gamble on this one. Jimmy Graham’s best days are clearly behind him but the one thing that still matters is the Bears will force-feed him the ball in the red zone. The tight end is first on the team with eight touchdowns when deep in opposition territory.
It was hard to find a touchdown scorer I love for this game. The Bears are so tough vs the run that picking Taysom Hill (+150) or Alvin Kamara (-200) feels like a waste while Bears WR Allen Robinson (+150) will likely be shadowed by Saints cornerback Marcus Lattimore the entire game. If you don’t want to take Graham, consider Darnell Mooney, also at +300, who has been the Bears’ second-leading receiver over the last four games.
Browns-Steelers: Diontae Johnson +145
My favorite touchdown scorer pick of the week, I’m going to die on the Diontae Johnson hill. The second-year wideout is one of many receivers to come into the Steelers organization over the years and immediately become a focal point of the offense.
When trying to pick between Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Johnson, just look at the odds and the targets. Did you know that Johnson is the only Steelers receiver to have more than four games of double-digit targets? Claypool and JuJu each have four of those games. Johnson has 10. This is strange because, for oddsmakers, they always set Johnson’s odds slightly higher than Claypool’s or Smith-Schuster’s but he is doing the bulk of the heavy lifting when Ben Roethlisberger needs a key third-down conversion.
I wouldn’t knock anyone who wants to take a different Steelers WR but the fact remains Johnson is getting the most opportunity in this offense and has better value to score.
How To Understand NFL Touchdown Scorer Odds
The time has come that you finally want to bet on some NFL props instead of sides and totals and you’ve decided on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. This is a fun choice because props are like games within the game that may or may not have a direct impact on the outcome of the game.
When you go to your online sportsbook to look at NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, for instance, the odds available to bet on might be presented like this:
Lamar Jackson – Ravens -110
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Steelers +150
Mark Andrews – Ravens +250
Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the favorite to score a touchdown is the player with the lowest odds, which in this case is Lamar Jackson. Based on Jackson’s implied odds from sportsbooks, Jackson has a 52.4 percent chance to score a touchdown.
Let’s say you think Lamar Jackson will score a touchdown in this game. In order to make $100 in profit, you would need to bet $110. If you make that bet and Jackson scores, your $110 original bet is returned and you win $100 in profit.
On the flip side, part of the allure of NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer wagers is the big paydays you could receive for being right and picking a player who doesn’t score as often as Jackson does. In this case, you decide to bet on Mark Andrews with the Ravens at +250. If you bet $100 on Andrews and he finds the end zone in the game, you would get $350 returned to you. Your original $100 bet is refunded and the sportsbook would give you $250 in profit for your winning bet.