NFL Prop Bet Payday: Week 11 player prop predictions

John Holler
| Sportsbook Wire

Week 11 in the NFL faces several prominent matchups which could have major impacts on the 2020 playoff picture. Here are five NFL player prop bets for Week 11 we think will help bring you to the pay window this week.

NFL Week 11 prop bet payday

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.

Too Many Cooks

Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook has been on a tear and Minnesota has been riding him. Last Monday against the Chicago Bears, he ran 30 times. While asking that number again may be difficult 20-25 isn’t out of the question.

His Over/Under for rushing yards is 103.5 (Over: -115, Under: -106). I typically don’t like to take the Over for any running back when it’s over 100 yards, but this is Cook in 2020 and this is the Dallas Cowboys defense. TAKE THE OVER.

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No Place Like Mahomes for the Holidays

That wariness of 100 yards as a betting line for a running back or a receiver, the same goes for setting an Over/Under of 300 passing yards for a QB. In Sunday night’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has an Over/Under of an absurd 320.5 yards (O: -106, U: -115).

While Mahomes is capable of topping 320 any week, making that the baseline number is wrong. TAKE THE UNDER and hope the Raiders run a lot.

He-e-e-e-re’s Jonnu!

The Baltimore Ravens haven’t had many defensive weaknesses, but they have been susceptible to giving up plays to tight ends. Tennessee Titans TE Jonnu Smith has quietly become a weapon for the Titans, who had a long history of solid, but unspectacular weekly efforts from Delanie Walker. There is a key role for a tight end in this offense and Smith is working his way into it.

His Over/Under for receiving yards is 28.5 (O: -112, U: -110). The Ravens are going to be attacking on defense to stop RB Derrick Henry. Smith should be a safety valve check-down on at least four of those attacks. TAKE THE OVER.

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Carson’s Comedy Classic

There seems to be a misplaced love for Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz love when it comes to his Over/Under numbers. It’s always too high and he so rarely hits it. His Over/Under is 246.5 passing yards (O: -110, U: -112).

He has topped that number just twice in the last eight games and the Cleveland Browns have the ability to shorten the game by running. As with anything else related to the NFC East, if you get your expectations up, you will be disappointed. TAKE THE UNDER.

Lucky Seven

There are some numbers that are so small they’re worth rolling the dice on because you only need one play at any point in a game to hit it. Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has an Over/Under for rushing yards of 6.5 (O: -110, U: -112). The Colts defense is legit and, while sack yardage won’t count against Rodgers’ rush total, Indy is going to bring pressure to get Rodgers off his spot in the pocket.

All he needs to do is avoid the initial pressure and he will have the opportunity to run with nothing but Green in front of him. TAKE THE OVER and hope the Victory Formation doesn’t come into play late in the game.

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