NFL Free Pick: Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints
Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints (NO -10.5, O/U 47)
Mitchell Trubisky will start his second career playoff game in the Superdome on Sunday against the Saints hoping for a better outcome than his first appearance, which culminated in the now-infamous double doink. He’ll square off with a defense that allowed just 18.2 points per game over its last nine games and finished fourth in the NFL with 5.0 yards allowed per play on the season.
Since Trubisky’s re-insertion as the starter in Week 12, the Bears have averaged over 30 points per game with the former second overall pick contributing 11 total touchdowns while coughing up seven turnovers.
Quarterbacking the home team will of course be Drew Brees, who essentially has a full season of playoff games under his belt and will add his 17th appearance to the list on Wild Card Weekend. Brees will almost certainly clear the 5,000-yard passing mark in his NFL postseason career (he’ll enter with 4,967) and leads an offense that has tallied 85 points in its last two games. The Saints are the clear betting favorites in this wild-card matchup, currently sitting as 10-point favorites over the visiting Bears.
Our NFL model agrees that Sean Payton’s squad deserves to be a large favorite in this one, projecting a final score of 27.6-15.6 in favor of the Saints. While we have a slight lean against the spread, our edge in this game really shows up when looking at the total. With 43.2 combined points projected and a total of 47, we have a solid edge on the UNDER in this matchup. Our model suggests a $117 wager on UNDER 47 for an average $100 bettor.
Prediction Machine’s NFL model is 214-170 ATS (55.7%) and 219-191 (53.4%) on O/Us for +35.79 units, or $3,579 of profit since the start of the 2019 season. Head over to predictionmachine.com/pricing and sign up to receive every NFL prediction.
Why will the total go UNDER?
How to bet the spread in Bears vs Saints:
Prediction Machine’s NFL model projects a final score of 27.6-15.6 in favor of the Saints. With a 12.0-point margin of victory projected for New Orleans and the spread currently at 10 points, we have a mild edge on Drew Brees and the Saints. Our model suggests a $36 wager on NEW ORLEANS -10 for an average $100 bettor.
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