By Jason McIntyre
FOX sports analyst that is betting*)The biggest sports gambling day of the year is Super Bowl Sunday, and as a result, you get the most efficient point spread of any game all season.
As painful as this will be to hear, there’s no edge betting a side-3 that is(KC within the Super Bowl. It is possible to state similar for the true point total (56.5). The sportsbooks basically copied the spread and total for the meeting between the two teams (-3, 56), and the line has barely moved since they were hung.
The november Super Bowl marketplace is roughly the same as Obi-Wan Kenobi rolling in to the Mos Eisley Cantina, however when he could be stopped by stormtroopers, he hypnotizes them and claims, “These aren’t the droids you’re looking.”
This is the reason why I hammer prop bets significantly more than the medial side or total. In-game wagering will too be huge.
For instance, when Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes fall behind, there is a ton of value on them rallying to win and cover. The chiefs trailed by double digits in all three games but pulled off a comeback each time in last year’s playoffs. Into the 2020 AFC name game against Buffalo, they trailed 9-0 but stormed back again to win and protect.
If Tampa Bay jumps to a 7-0 or 10-0 lead, it is an auto-bet for me personally on the Chiefs — and also at a far greater number than -3. This may seem like a time that is good remind you that Mahomes has never lost a game by more than one score in his three seasons as an NFL starter (he lost 40-32 to Las Vegas).
With that, we’ll finish the season strong with one game that is last
But first, let us observe how we did this year:
Conference championship week-end
Past nine months
First half: 0-2
Now to the Super Bowl:
I published about why we bet the Chiefs the moment the line arrived fourteen days ago. I’m contractually obligated to say that Andy Reid is 26-6 straight-up off a bye week, and that is 7-3 straight-up within the playoffs.
Some other enjoyable facts:
- The Chiefs surely got to 27 points with 22 mins kept within their earlier in the day ending up in the Bucs, and that’s despite going 0-for-3 in the zone that is red. K.C. could have easily hung 40 on the Bucs’ defense in Tampa.
- K.C. played six games against playoff teams this season – four in the season that is regular the Browns and Bills within the playoffs. The Chiefs outscored the team 114-48 within the half that is first. They had a habit of playing with their food when up big in the half that is second rather than constantly addressing. That won’t function as situation Sunday.
Daniel Sorenson THROUGH 5.5 tackles and assists (-138)
The Chiefs’ defense features two names that are big everyone knows: All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones and star safety Tyrann “Honey Badger” Mathieu. But the guy in line for a game that is big is the versatile security Daniel Sorenson, who the Chiefs fall into line throughout the industry.
Sorenson played 460 snaps within the field, 216 at free security and 157 at slot cornerback. He led the Chiefs in tackles this year, in which he has received at the very least six tackles in all of their previous six playoff games.
One more thing to keep in mind: Tom Brady likes to matchup-hunt. Think back into just how he picked on Green Bay’s Kevin King over repeatedly within the NFC name game. If Sorenson finds himself harmonized with Chris Godwin within the slot, anticipate Brady to follow him. Additionally, Brady has two tight ends who’re 6-foot-5 (Cameron Brate) and 6-foot-6 (Rob Gronkowski), as well as have actually a size that is big on the 6-foot-2 Sorenson.
That just means more opportunities for tackles for Sorenson.
The Honey Badger is the ball-hawking playmaker. Sorenson is the machine that is tackling
Leonard Fournette THROUGH 3.5 receptions (-138)
This is a casino game script play. In my opinion the Chiefs will in some instances blitz Brady much like the real way they relentlessly blitzed Josh Allen in the AFC title game. Brady, a statue in the pocket, won’t have many options to reach his downfield targets, the way that is same didn’t.
In addition, the Chiefs’ linebackers aren’t great in protection, and that’s why the Bills targeted backs that are running Yeldon and Devin Singletary a combined eight times. Bruce Arians and Brady seem to trust Fournette more than Ronald Jones, who, to be fair, is coming off an injury.
Fournette’s targets have gone up in each playoff game (4, 5, 7), and he has better hands than Jones, too.
Total FGs made in the first half: OVER 1.5 (-120)
By now, everyone knows the story of Tom Brady in the big game: In nine Super Bowls, Brady’s offenses have never generated a touchdown in the quarter that is first. In reality, their groups have actually scored only one industry objective within the nine quarters, and that arrived from the Eagles in 2018.
Slow begins are a thing that is real. This season, both the Bucs and Chiefs have struggled in the zone that is red seems weird to state aloud, provided the two QBs we’re speaing frankly about – ranking 11th and 12th, correspondingly, in red-zone TD percentage. The Bucs converted TDs 64% of that time period plus the Chiefs simply 61%.
In two playoff games, the Chiefs held the Browns and Bills to a combined one TD and two industry objectives within the half that is first. Bruce Arians is Mr. “No risk it, no biscuit,” but he’ll save that for the half that is second
Any industry goal or point that is extra to hit the upright or crossbar: YES (+425)
The most popular Super Bowl prop is almost always the coin toss bet, but I’ve never gotten into that.
Whether A kick will upright hit the or crossbar? Given that’s fun.
That makes each and every kick a event that is must-see. There’s no research that can here be done. Don’t bother diving in to the past history of kicks that have hit the upright or crossbar at Raymond James Stadium. You get to root for a “doink” every time a kicking unit trots onto the field.
Darrel if you want to put some pizza money on the YES Williams THROUGH 30.5 rush yards (-105)
This is another play that is anti-narrative. “You can’t run on Tampa, and now Vita Vea is back!”
The Bucs’ run defense has been terrific all season (first in efficiency), and the run that is longest they’ve allowed within the postseason is 17 yards. And everyone’s likely to bet Mahomes to pass through for a million yards.
Here’s the part that is funny All of that is true and can certainly happen. In fact, it has all happened before, and running back props have hit still. The Chiefs trailed for much of the second half, Mahomes attempted 42 passes … and Damien Williams still rushed for 104 yards in the Super Bowl last year. Even he still easily cleared his prop total (52).
In the earlier meeting with Tampa Bay this year, Mahomes attempted 49 passes, and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 37 yards if you take away his 38-yard TD run late in the game. With CEH nursing a sprained ankle that limited him to six carries for seven yards within the AFC name game, Darrel Williams are certain to get the majority of the carries.
Jason Pierre-Paul to record a sack: YES (+140)
This is actually a play from the beat-up chiefs line that is offensive. Their two best tackles are out, and it’ll be musical chairs of offensive linemen.
That plan didn’t work out so well for Green Bay, as backup left tackle Billy Turner gave up two sacks to Jason Pierre-Paul in the half that is first of NFC Championship. JPP choose to go five games that are straight no sacks.
Speculation is that K.C. will move veteran that is undrafted Remmers to left tackle to manage JPP. This is certainly Remmers’ very first period with K.C., in which he has played 839 snaps and graded away well, in accordance with Pro Football Focus (36th out of 80 tackles).
Shaquil Barrett to record a sack: YES (+115)
Shaq Barrett is one of many edge rushers that are best in the league the past two seasons, and he has an extremely favorable matchup against K.C. guard Andrew Wylie, who is likely to move to right tackle for this game.
Wylie has had a season that is below-average in accordance with Pro Football Focus (61st away from 80 guards), now he must go on to the surface, where he could find himself one-on-one with Barrett. Into the NFC name game, Barrett abused Green Bay right tackle Rick Wagner, accumulating three sacks and four QB hits.
Barrett had two QB hits on Mahomes plus one sack within the meeting that is regular-season
Total Interceptions: OVER 1.5 (+120)
Brady has played 19 games this season, and for some good explanation, he’s tossed interceptions in bunches, registering five games with several picks.
How strange is the fact that? He previously a complete of five such games in their last three periods utilizing the brand new England Patriots.
Some of the may be chalked as much as a fresh offense, brand new teammates and a playbook that is new. The only monkey that is potential in this wager is the fact that Mahomes has played seven postseason games and tossed just two interceptions. Both arrived from the San Francisco 49ers within the Super Bowl year that is last.
Player to have reception that is longest Scotty Miller (+1100)
Do we realize just how healthier Antonio Brown is? If he’s struggling to play or contribute much, it starts the doorway for Scotty Miller to slip in and potentially have actually a moment that is big
It’s weird to think of the 5-foot-9, 174-pound Scott Miller as a receiver that is big-play but Brady likes to target him deeply. Miller hauled in a bomb that is 39-yard the Packers at the end of the first half in the NFC title game. He caught Brady’s pass that is longest against brand new Orleans, too. Returning to the standard period, Miller snuck behind the Vikings’ defense for the catch that is longest of the game (48-yard TD).
Miller additionally had the group’s longest reception from the Las Vegas Raiders (35 yards), from the Denver Broncos (47) plus in the opener from the Saints (35). Of program, the catch here’s that the Bucs’ defense can’t give up any such thing deep to Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins or Mecole Hardman.
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