Coppa Italia Semifinals Leg 1 Odds & Picks: Inter Milan vs Juventus & Napoli vs Atalanta

Coppa Italia

Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez celebrates his goal against Benevento during a Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan and Benevento at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Saturday, Jan. 30, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Inter Milan will play host to Juventus, while Napoli entertains Atalanta in leg 1 of the Coppa Italia Semifinals this week
  • Bets on Over 2.5 totals are 7-3 in the past ten matches between Napoli and Atalanta
  • See the odds and our game previews for this week’s matches below

We’re down to the final four in Italy’s cup competition, the Coppa Italia, with the first legs of the semifinals taking place on Tuesday, (Inter Milan vs Juventus) and on Wednesday, Napoli vs Atalanta.

The teams will do it again next week for leg 2 from February 9-10.

It was a clean sweep of predictions during the quarterfinal round, so let’s look ahead and see if we can pick out some more best bets for leg 1 of the semis.

Inter Milan vs Juventus Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Inter Milan vs Juventus INT 0, -0.5 (+105) | JUV 0, +0.5 (-125) INT +137 | JUV +180 | DRAW +250 Ov 2.5 (+100) | Un 2.5 (-125)

All odds taken Feb 1 at Bet365

All four of these remaining sides entered the Coppa Italia in the round of 16. Inter Milan first defeated Fiorentina 2-1 on the road. Last week they bested their rivals AC Milan 2-1. They host Juventus on Tuesday at 2:45 pm EST.

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Both Inter and Juventus reside in the top four in Serie A. Inter are coming off a straightforward 4-0 win over Benevento this weekend. Though Benevento survived the first half by only allowing an own goal, Lautaro Martinez would add to the lead early in the second half, followed by two more goals from Romelu Lukaku. Not only was Benevento held off the scoresheet, but they were also blanked in the shot department. Benevento failed to register a single attempt either at goal or on target.

Inter are now undefeated in their past four in the league. They will though, be without Lukaku (suspended) in this Coppa Italia match, meaning it looks to be Martinez and Alexis Sanchez up top for the Nerazzurri. Achraf Hakimi will also miss out due to suspension.

For Juventus, they’ve reached the semifinals by virtue of a 3-2 home win over Genoa, followed by 4-0 win last week at home over Serie B side SPAL.

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These teams met as recently as last month when Inter Milan were 2-0 winners at home in Serie A on January 17. Last season, Juventus won both meetings, 2-1 and 2-0.

Across all competitions, UNDER 2.5 total goals has been the bet to make on 7/10 recent occasions between these two. The UNDER in this match has odds of -125.

Since the defeat to Inter on January 16, Juve have won back-to-back matches with 2-0 wins over Bologna and most recently Sampdoria on Saturday.

While Juve’s defense has tightened up in their recent matches in Serie A, they had conceded a goal in nine of ten previous matches. Additionally, in seven games played against any team ranked inside the current top eight in Serie A, Juventus has conceded in every single match.

Meanwhile, for Inter, across all competitions this season, at home, they have scored in 12/14 matches. The two where they didn’t score came in the Champions League. They’ve also conceded in 10 of those 14 at home.

I don’t trust either side to keep a clean sheet in this Coppa Italia match. But in a first leg match, neither team will want to risk putting themselves into too deep a hole before the second leg. I’ll bet both teams to score, but also that leg 1 ends in a draw.

Picks: Both Teams to Score (-125), Draw (+250)

2021 Serie A Odds Tracker

Napoli vs Atalanta Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Napoli vs Atalanta NAP 0, -0.5 (+105) | ATA 0, +0.5 (-125) NAP +140 | ATA +175 | DRAW +250 Ov 2.5 (-167) | Un 2.5 (+130)

Two more of Serie A’s top teams meet in the Coppa Italia Semifinals on Wednesday at 2:45 pm EST.

To reach the semifinals Napoli defeated Serie B side Empoli 3-2 at home, before also beating Spezia 4-2 at home last week in the quarterfinals.

On the weekend, Napoli were 2-0 winners at home to Parma, a rebound after losing to Verona 3-1 the weekend prior.

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Atalanta, meanwhile, were 3-1 home winners over Cagliari and 3-2 home winners over Lazio last week to reach the semis.

La Dea played a rematch with Lazio this weekend, this time in the league, and weren’t as successful. They didn’t look like the typical offensive powerhouse we’re used to seeing and fell behind 3-0; only scoring a late consolation goal in the 82′ minute to lose 3-1.

Across all competitions that was the first defeat in 14 matches for Gian Piero Gasperini’s men.

Earlier this season Napoli took all three points in Serie A play when they won 4-1 at home. While last season the teams drew 2-2 in Naples, and Atalanta won 2-0 in Bergamo.

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Unlike between Inter and Juve, this Coppa Italia matchup has historically been higher scoring. In the past five, both teams have scored and at least three total goals have been produced four times. In the past ten, OVER 2.5 totals have cashed at a rate of 7-3.

To me, there’s no reason to make this one harder than it needs to be. Each side boasts plenty of attacking talent (Atalanta second in scoring with 45 goals versus Napoli fourth with 43) and rank near the top of most offensive categories, which should translate to an exciting match with plenty of goals. In Serie A, Atalanta is 14-6 to OVER 2.5 totals while Napoli is 12-7.

Looking at some advanced stats from FBRef, Napoli and Atalanta are first-second in shots on target, second (Napoli) and fourth (Atalanta) in goal creating chances per 90, and first (Atalanta) versus fourth (Napoli) in attacking third touches. The teams have seen high scoring affairs in the Coppa Italia so far and I see that continuing on Wednesday

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

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