Boise State vs Nevada Odds and Picks

RayJ Dennis Boise State Broncos

Boise State guard RayJ Dennis (10) dishes off past Houston guard Caleb Mills (2) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Friday, Nov. 27, 2020, in Houston. (AP Photo/Michael Wyke)
  • Boise State is a 4-point favorite over Nevada on Friday (Feb. 5th, 9 pm EST)
  • The Broncos have won 13 of their last 14, while the Wolf Pack are fresh off back-to-back victories
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

The Power 6 conferences tend to get the majority of the headlines in the college hoops media, but there’s some good basketball being played these days in the Mountain West.

Boise State (14-2, 10-1 MWC) is currently the best program of the bunch, and seeks its 14th win in 15 games on Friday (Feb. 5, 9 pm EST) against Nevada (12-7, 7-5 MWC).

Boise State vs Nevada Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Boise State Broncos -4 (-115) OFF Over 145.5 (-110)
Nevada Wolf Pack +4 (-105) OFF Under 145.5 (-110)

Odds taken Feb. 4th.

The Broncos opened up as 4-point favorites, in a game that features a total of 145.5. The Wolf Pack meanwhile, are fresh off a two-game sweep of rival UNLV, blowing out the Rebels in back-to-back outings.

2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker

Sweeping Away the Competition

Nevada crushed UNLV by 29 at home on Sunday, and followed that up with a 72-62 home victory on Tuesday. Zane Meeks led the way with 19, while Grant Sherfield poured in 18 and Warren Washington added 15.

They’ve now won four straight at home, and are 7-2 at the Lawlor Events Center this season. After a slow offensive start to the 2020-21 campaign, they’ve now topped 71 points in five of their last six games, and have held the opposition below 66 points five times during that stretch.

Their offensive numbers are right around the middle of the pack in the Mountain West, but their defense continues to improve. They rank fourth in the conference in points allowed, while holding enemy shooters to 40.2% from the field this season. That unit is in for a stiff test on Friday, as the Broncos possess not only the best offense in the Mountain West, but one of the best in the entire country.

Broncos Are Ballin’

Boise State is coming off an 85-77 victory over Colorado State, avenging its only conference loss of the season. Marcus Shaver Jr. led the way with a season-high 21 points, while Abu Kigab posted 17 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks.

The Broncos sit atop the Mountain West, and their 14 wins are the second most in program history through 16 games.

They rank first in the conference, and 24th nationally, in points per game, while only eight teams in the entire country have a better point differential. The offense is led by three seniors who all average in double figures, and the program gets at least 7 points and 21.5 minutes from eight rotational players.

Defensively, they rank 35th nationally in opponent points per game, making them one of just four teams in college basketball who are in the top-40 in both scoring offense and defense.

They’re 6-2 on the road, and while they’re expected to win this game, it may be closer than most people think.

Home Sweet Home

That’s because the Wolf Pack have been ATS crushers this season, especially on their home court. They’re 13-5 against the spread overall, 9-3 in Mountain West play, and 6-2 at home.

They’re a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home underdog, and have owned Boise State recently. Nevada has won eight of the last nine matchups, including four straight at home.

KenPom’s metrics predict a close 74-71 Boise State victory and I tend to agree. The juice is currently shaded on the Broncos side, so if you wait until closer to game time you might be able to grab +4.5.

Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack +4 (-105)

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